SEVERE WEATHER RISK SATURDAY

 SEVERE WEATHER RISK SATURDAY

The forecast for severe weather Saturday is tricky.

 Through at least late morning, the atmosphere looks pretty stable so no severe weather is expected even with widespread showers/few storms.

 As we head through late morning and early afternoon, the widespread rain exits and a warm front heads north.

 Behind it, the air gets more unstable through the afternoon. 

Exactly how far north the warm front gets is the big question. If it stayed south of us, the air would remain stable and we would have no severe weather. 

With that said, IF the warm front moves through the area, any storms that form near it during the afternoon/evening are more likely to spin so a damaging wind gust/tornado would not be out of the question. 

 Right now, the risk of severe weather would be focused more inland, but again, that depends on how far north the warm front gets. Still two days out so we'll watch the trends. Stay weather-aware on Saturday.

I think this graphic sums up Saturday's severe weather risk in the afternoon and evening.

 The position of the warm front is everything.

 If it stalls south of us, the air remains stable so no severe weather. If it moves through any part of the area, the air could become unstable enough to support storms capable of a damaging wind gust/tornado. Most models do show at least some instability in the area so it will bear watching.