Hurricane Rafael update

 🌀 Hurricane Season Update 🌀

Hurricane Rafael has made a powerful entrance, making landfall in Cuba as a formidable Category 3 storm at precisely 4:15 p.m. local time on Wednesday. The storm struck the Cuban province of Artemisa, just east of the scenic Playa Majana, with maximum sustained winds reaching an alarming 115 mph.

As Hurricane Rafael unleashes its fury, the islands face severe threats including torrential rainfall, destructive winds, and a significant risk of flash flooding and mudslides. Communities along the south-facing coastline should prepare for an ominous storm surge, projected to reach heights of 6-10 feet.

Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

As Rafael progresses into the Gulf of Mexico, it is anticipated to maintain its status as a Category 1 or 2 storm for a period before gradually losing intensity due to cooler sea temperatures and increasing wind shear. Experts at AccuWeather note that the storm has several potential paths it could take, each carrying its own set of risks.

With its wide-reaching winds, Rafael is expected to generate tumultuous seas across the Gulf, resulting in hazardous surf conditions and prompting concerns over beach erosion along the coastline. Should the storm veer toward land, coastal areas to the north and east of its projected track could experience significant flooding.

Storm's Path and Future Development

Rafael is making its closest approach to Florida this morning before it begins to turn away from the state and head west later today. This westward shift is due to a large area of high pressure over the southwest Atlantic and southeast United States. The pressure difference between this high-pressure system and the Category 2 hurricane nearby is why it’s been so breezy lately. Those breezes will stick around today out of the southeast, and they could bring a few showers.

Hurricanes tend to travel through atmospheric "weaknesses," areas between regions of high and low pressure. The high-pressure system over the southeast is pushing Rafael toward the western Gulf, where an area of low pressure is expected to approach this weekend. This low pressure, however, is strong and will produce strong upper-level winds, bringing drier air along with it. Additionally, the cooler waters in the Gulf compared to the Caribbean will contribute to Rafael weakening as the weekend progresses.

Conclusion: Rapid Weakening Expected

All models predict the storm will weaken rapidly over the next 48 hours. Many of the models suggest that Rafael will fall below tropical storm intensity by Monday, possibly fizzling out into a weak low-pressure system that may eventually dissipate or be absorbed by a passing front.

For now, it looks like Rafael will not pose a major threat to the United States, other than impacting ship and air traffic over the Gulf, which will have to navigate around the storm.

Stay safe, stay updated, and monitor your local weather stations for the latest developments.

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Source: AccuWeather